Monday 7 December 2015

ALLIED GROUND ATTACK IN SYRIA

In four years, Syria has descended into chaos from a prosperous nation with a middle class merchant economy and society. There was violence by President Assad in 1982 following the brutal crushing of a dissident group by his father. 

The BBC reports that the army was the first to refuse to follow orders forming the Free Syrian Army which was unable to maintain control and broke up into splinter groups which quickly became sectarian. The situation rapidly deteriorated with Al Qaeda and IS taking control in the north.

There formed several jihadist groups both Syrian and foreign, becoming the core of the anti-Assad force, securing and maintaining territorial control. The main Syrian islamic groups were Ahrar al Sham and Jaysh al Islam. But the most notorious groups were the Islamic State and the Nusra Front, al Qaeda's affiliate in Syria.

Ideological and political disagreements within the groups and their international backers led to splintering and fighting among the opposition groups. This was taken by the Kurds to provide the opportunity to break the strict years of nationalist control. Kurds alone have taken territory back from the IS. 

The civil war in Syria has wars inside of wars. It can not be solved by intervention of foreign armies. Wars cannot be waged with the sides unsure of whom they are fighting. Sides may change. Allies one week may be enemies the next week. Enemies may pretend to be allies while seeking the best advantage to strike.

There is reluctance on the part of the allied Governments to deploy ground troops against the Islamic State in Syria. There has been ample time for nasty surprises to await troops at the hands of IS.

It is certain that not all nerve gas has been removed from the hands of the Assad Government with some held by the IS. Already we recall the debilitating illness of US troops after Operation Desert Storm.

The IS surely has military reserves to come to their aid as rear guard attackers of any allied army. There may be confusion in the event of a multi-nation response so that the wrong troops are attacked by aircraft.

BBC reports that there has been considerable recruitment to IS from Tunisia, Jordan, Qatar, Turkey, Saudi, Iraq, Libya and Chechnya. The total would be in the vicinity of 67,000 recruits, mainly Arab. 

This means that Syria is encircled by Levant countries that will provide volunteers. This will make any ground attack by Allied troops most difficult.

The Syrian army will rest if foreign troops enter. They will keep out of the way. It will be like the South Vietnamese army allowing the US troops to do all the fighting. They knew where not to be.

There would be confusion of allied commanders between the moderate rebels and the IS troops. Russian troops would focus on the moderate rebels. Some of them may be IS in disguise. There would be total confusion among troops on the ground.

The Russians would have the problem of IS supporters waiting to come to the aid of IS from their base in Chechnya, the home of Islamic jihad. Others would be waiting throughout Europe disguised as refugees. They would attack the nations within national borders.

The ground attack would be accompanied by heightened terrorist activity across Europe. This would impact on the hearts and minds of citizens of European nations. The danger is that Moslems across the world may be forced to have sympathy for the caliphate.

The so called Caliph has decreed that all Moslems swear allegiance to him. This may push the moderate Moslems of the world into silence. 

Nevertheless, there has been a statement from Mohammed Ali, famous heavy weight boxer denouncing the brutality and slaughter of the Islamic State. He explains that this does not reflect the purity of Islam and the will of Allah.


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